NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Trends Higher in October

On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), one of the largest small business associations in the US, reported its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for October. The October SBOI increased 2.2 points to a reading of 93.7. This is the 34th consecutive month the SBOI has been below the 50-year average of 98.

The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points to 110, the highest reading recorded.

A seasonally adjusted net negative 20% of small business owners reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, the lowest reading since July 2020.

Other highlights of the SBOI report include the following:

• A net negative 20% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down 3 points from September and the lowest reading since July 2020.
• Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% reported raising compensation, down 1 point from September. The last time it was this low was April 2021.
• The net percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 5 points to a net negative 4% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading of this year.
• A net 5% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down 7 points from September and the lowest reading since January 2022.
• 35% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 1 point from September (seasonally adjusted).
• 23% of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), unchanged from September and remaining the top issue.

Commenting on the report, NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said:

“With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions. Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled jobs openings, and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge our Main Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season.”