NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rises in December

On Tuesday, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points to 99.5 in December 2025, remaining above the 52-year average of 98.

Of the 10 index components, two increased, three decreased, and five were unchanged. The largest contributor to the monthly gain was an improvement in expectations for better business conditions.

The NFIB Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84 in December, marking its lowest reading since June 2024.

Other key highlights from the December SBOI include:

• Overall business health: 9% of owners rated their business health as excellent (down 2 points from November); 54% rated it good (up 1 point); 34% rated it fair (up 4 points); and 3% rated it poor (down 2 points).
• Taxes: 20% of owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 6 points from November and the highest reading since May 2021.
• Selling prices: The net share of owners raising average selling prices fell 4 points to a seasonally adjusted net 30%. A net 28% plan to raise prices over the next three months, down 2 points from November.
• Loan costs: A net negative 3% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 5 points from November and the lowest level since January 2021.
• Business conditions outlook: The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 9 points to a seasonally adjusted net 24%, the first increase since July.
• Inventories: A net negative 1% of owners reported inventory gains, up 6 points from November and the highest reading of 2025.
• Supply chains: 64% of owners said supply chain disruptions affected their business to some degree, unchanged from November, although NFIB noted a positive shift from significant disruptions toward moderate/mild impacts.

In remarks accompanying the release, NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said:

“2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism. While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”