Leading Economic Index® for U.S. Climbs Higher in October

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (11-18-21) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in October. According to the report, the LEI for the U.S. increased by 0.9% in October to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in September and a 0.7% increase in August.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5% in October to a reading of 106.3, after remaining unchanged in September and a 0.1% increase in August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.4% in October to a reading of 107.4, following a 1.0% increase in September and a -0.3% decline in August.

In a statement prepared for the release of the October LEI, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said, “The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into 2022 and may even gain some momentum in the final months of this year. Gains were widespread among the leading indicators, with only the average workweek and consumers’ outlook making negative contributions.”

“However, rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks pose challenges to growth and are not expected to dissipate until well into 2022,” Ozyildirim added. “Despite these headwinds, The Conference Board forecasts growth to remain strong in the fourth quarter at around 5.0 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still historically robust rate of 2.6 percent in Q1 2022.”