US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 4.3% in Q3, BEA Reports in Its “Initial” Estimate

On December 23, 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “initial” estimate for Q3 real gross domestic product (GDP), reporting that GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.3%. In Q2, real GDP increased 3.8%.

The BEA said the initial estimate replaces the advance estimate originally scheduled for October 30 and the second estimate scheduled for November 26, following the government shutdown.

The increase in real GDP in Q3 primarily reflected gains in consumer spending, exports, and government spending, which were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, also declined.

Compared with Q2, the acceleration in Q3 growth reflected a smaller decline in investment, faster growth in consumer spending, and upturns in exports and government spending. Imports decreased less in Q3 than in the prior quarter.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment—increased 3.0% in Q3, compared with a 2.9% increase in Q2.

The price index for gross domestic purchases rose 3.4% in Q3, up from a 2.0% increase in Q2. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8%, compared with 2.1% in the prior quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index rose 2.9%, up from 2.6%.