US Consumer Confidence Index Declines in September

On Tuesday, the Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its Consumer Confidence Survey for September.

• The Consumer Confidence Index declined to 98.7 in September (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised reading of 105.6 in August.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 124.3 in September, down 10.3 points from August’s reading of 134.6.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined 4.6 points to a reading of 81.7 in September but remained above 80. A reading below 80 usually signals a recession ahead.

The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 17th.

Adding background and analysis to the report, Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said:

“Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.

The drop in confidence was steepest for consumers aged 35–54. As a result, on a six-month moving average basis, the 35–54 age group has become the least confident while consumers under 35 remain the most confident. Confidence declined in September across most income groups, with consumers earning less than $50K experiencing the largest decrease. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning over $100K remained the most confident.

The deterioration across the Index’s main components likely reflected consumers concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings—even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs, and elevated wages. The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months remained low but there was a slight uptick in the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession.”