The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index Falls for Third Consecutive Month in October

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released on Tuesday (10-31-23) its Consumer Confidence Survey® for October.

• The Consumer Confidence Index® declined in October to a reading of 102.6 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised September reading of 104.3.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined in October to a reading of 143.1 (1985=100), down from September’s reading of 146.2.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to a reading of 75.6 in (1985=100) in October, after falling to 76.4 in September. The Conference Board noted that The Expectations Index is still below 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with a short and shallow economic contraction they anticipate for the first half of 2024.

Adding additional background information and her analysis to the report, Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said:

“Consumer confidence fell again in October, marking three consecutive months of decline. October’s retreat reflected pullbacks in both the Present Situation and Expectations Index. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. Worries around war/conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group.”