The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Holds Steady in September

On Thursday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for September.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) was unchanged in September at 99.6 (2016=100), following a 0.1% decline in August. The index rose 0.6% between March and September, reversing a 1.1% decline over the previous six-month period.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.3% to 115.3 in September, following a 0.1% increase in August. Over the latest six-month period, the CEI increased 0.9%, compared with 0.2% growth in the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components contributed positively in September.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.5% to 121.1 in September, following a 0.2% rise in August. Over the past six months, the LAG rose 1.0%, compared with a 0.5% increase in the previous period.

In remarks accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, said:

“The US LEI was flat in September. However, due to an upward revision to July’s data, the Index is at a higher level than last month’s report for August. Five out of ten components made positive contributions to the LEI in September, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing. Nevertheless, these gains were offset by a large decline in consumer expectations and much smaller negative contributions from stock prices, new orders for capital goods and building permits. The LEI’s six-month growth rate increased slightly, which suggests the economy is still growing and will continue to grow, but is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment. The Conference Board now expects real GDP to grow by a 2.2% annualized rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 at 2.0%, higher than previously forecasted.”