The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Ticks Up in July

On Thursday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for July.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.2% in July to 99.5 (2016=100), following an upwardly revised 0.1% decline in June, originally reported as down 0.2%. The index rose 0.2% between January and July, compared with a 1.3% decline over the prior six-month period.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% to 114.8 in July, following a 0.2% increase in June. Over the latest six-month period, the CEI rose 0.5%, compared with no change in the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. In July, all components except payroll employment made positive contributions.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) rose 0.2% to 120.4 in July. Despite the monthly increase, the index remained below the preliminary June level of 120.5 because of downward revisions from April through June. Over the past six months, the LAG rose 0.8%, compared with a 0.4% increase over the previous six-month period.

In remarks accompanying the report, The Conference Board Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said:

“The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months. Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.”